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What Are the Odds? Read the FAQ

Target name: Enter the name of the person you're trying to place in the tree Birth year: YYYY

My research question is: Enter the question you are trying to answer here

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You are viewing this tree in read-only mode. If you would like to make edits, please click Save and make a copy in your DNA Painter account first.

You are investigating a match of 110cM

The tree below shows 39 hypotheses, identified by a green border. These represent different ways you and the match could connect.

  • Hypotheses are mathematically possible but may not be genealogically likely.
  • To narrow down the possibilities, type your birth year above and estimate a birth year for the match by hovering over 'Person' and clicking 'Edit details'
  • If you have pedigree collapse or endogamy in your family, these hypotheses may not be accurate.
  • Shared cM project view for 110 cM
  • More information on this feature

You have one or more hypotheses that are possible

Click on any score to show match relationships

View score calculation View ranking of hypotheses

Hover over a person for options. Scroll to the right to see children.

Suggesting Hypotheses

Most recent common ancestor or couple
Unknown
Score = 2 Hypothesis 1
Unknown
Unknown
Unknown
Unknown
Person 110cM
Unknown child
Unknown child
Unknown child
Unknown child
Score = 2 Hypothesis 2
Unknown half-sib
Unknown child
Unknown child
Score = 2 Hypothesis 3
Unknown sibling
Unknown child
Unknown child
Score = 2 Hypothesis 4
Score = 10 Hypothesis 5
Score = 7 Hypothesis 6
Score = 4 Hypothesis 7
Unknown half-sib
Unknown child
Score = 2 Hypothesis 8
Score = 10 Hypothesis 9
Score = 7 Hypothesis 10
Score = 4 Hypothesis 11
Score = 1 Hypothesis 12
Unknown sibling
Unknown child
Score = 2 Hypothesis 13
Score = 10 Hypothesis 14
Score = 7 Hypothesis 15
Score = 4 Hypothesis 16
Score = 1 Hypothesis 17
Unknown half-sib
Score = 2 Hypothesis 18
Score = 10 Hypothesis 19
Score = 7 Hypothesis 20
Score = 4 Hypothesis 21
Score = 1 Hypothesis 22
Unknown sibling
Score = 2 Hypothesis 23
Score = 10 Hypothesis 24
Score = 7 Hypothesis 25
Score = 4 Hypothesis 26
Score = 1 Hypothesis 27
Score = 2 Unknown half-sib Hypothesis 28
Score = 10 Hypothesis 29
Score = 7 Hypothesis 30
Score = 4 Hypothesis 31
Score = 1 Hypothesis 32
Unknown sibling
Score = 10 Hypothesis 33
Score = 7 Hypothesis 34
Score = 4 Hypothesis 35
Score = 1 Hypothesis 36
Unknown half-sib
Score = 7 Hypothesis 37
Score = 4 Hypothesis 38
Score = 1 Hypothesis 39


Click to add notes

Ranking of Hypotheses

Here are the calculated probabilities, with the most likely hypothesis first.
A higher score means a higher likelihood that this hypothesis is correct. Read the FAQ for more about scores

View score calculation Back to top
This hypothesis is possible and about as likely as the next hypothesis
This hypothesis is possible and about as likely as the next hypothesis
This hypothesis is possible and about as likely as the next hypothesis
This hypothesis is possible and about as likely as the next hypothesis
This hypothesis is possible and about as likely as the next hypothesis
This hypothesis is possible and about as likely as the next hypothesis
This hypothesis is possible and about as likely as the next hypothesis
This hypothesis is possible and about as likely as the next hypothesis
This hypothesis is possible and about as likely as the next hypothesis
This hypothesis is possible and about as likely as the next hypothesis
This hypothesis is possible and about as likely as the next hypothesis
This hypothesis is possible and about as likely as the next hypothesis
This hypothesis is possible and about as likely as the next hypothesis
This hypothesis is possible and about as likely as the next hypothesis
About 2 times more likely than the next hypothesisThis also applies to any identically scoring hypotheses above
This hypothesis is possible and about as likely as the next hypothesis
This hypothesis is possible and about as likely as the next hypothesis
This hypothesis is possible and about as likely as the next hypothesis
This hypothesis is possible and about as likely as the next hypothesis
This hypothesis is possible and about as likely as the next hypothesis
This hypothesis is possible and about as likely as the next hypothesis
This hypothesis is possible and about as likely as the next hypothesis
About 2 times more likely than the next hypothesisThis also applies to any identically scoring hypotheses above
This hypothesis is possible and about as likely as the next hypothesis
This is statistically possible, but it's not significantly more likely than other hypothesis.
This hypothesis is possible and about as likely as the next hypothesis
This is statistically possible, but it's not significantly more likely than other hypothesis.
This hypothesis is possible and about as likely as the next hypothesis
This is statistically possible, but it's not significantly more likely than other hypothesis.
This hypothesis is possible and about as likely as the next hypothesis
This is statistically possible, but it's not significantly more likely than other hypothesis.
This hypothesis is possible and about as likely as the next hypothesis
This is statistically possible, but it's not significantly more likely than other hypothesis.
This hypothesis is possible and about as likely as the next hypothesis
This is statistically possible, but it's not significantly more likely than other hypothesis.
This hypothesis is possible and about as likely as the next hypothesis
This is statistically possible, but it's not significantly more likely than other hypothesis.
This hypothesis is possible and about as likely as the next hypothesis
This is statistically possible, but it's not significantly more likely than other hypothesis.
About 2 times more likely than the next hypothesisThis also applies to any identically scoring hypotheses above
This is statistically possible, but it's not significantly more likely than other hypothesis.
This hypothesis is possible and about as likely as the next hypothesis
This is statistically possible, but it's not significantly more likely than other hypothesis.
This hypothesis is possible and about as likely as the next hypothesis
This is statistically possible, but it's not significantly more likely than other hypothesis.
This hypothesis is possible and about as likely as the next hypothesis
This is statistically possible, but it's not significantly more likely than other hypothesis.
This hypothesis is possible and about as likely as the next hypothesis
This is statistically possible, but it's not significantly more likely than other hypothesis.
This hypothesis is possible and about as likely as the next hypothesis
This is statistically possible, but it's not significantly more likely than other hypothesis.
This hypothesis is possible and about as likely as the next hypothesis
This is statistically possible, but it's not significantly more likely than other hypothesis.
This hypothesis is possible
This is statistically possible, but it's not significantly more likely than other hypothesis.
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Score calculation

This table shows the following for each match:

  • Amount of shared DNA in cMs
  • The genealogical relationship with each hypothesis based on its position in the tree (for example 3rd cousin)
  • The probability that the amount of cM shared corresponds to this relationship

These individual probabilities are then used to calculate the combined odds ratio used for the score

If a probability appears in red as '0.00%', this means this relationship is not statistically possible given the shared cM amount you've entered.

The odds ratios are made by comparing all hypotheses that are considered possible and then determining the relative likelhood of each. For more information please see the FAQ.

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View ranking of hypotheses Back to top
Match name & Shared cM
Hyp. 1Hyp. 2Hyp. 3Hyp. 4Hyp. 5Hyp. 6Hyp. 7Hyp. 8Hyp. 9Hyp. 10Hyp. 11Hyp. 12Hyp. 13Hyp. 14Hyp. 15Hyp. 16Hyp. 17Hyp. 18Hyp. 19Hyp. 20Hyp. 21Hyp. 22Hyp. 23Hyp. 24Hyp. 25Hyp. 26Hyp. 27Hyp. 28Hyp. 29Hyp. 30Hyp. 31Hyp. 32Hyp. 33Hyp. 34Hyp. 35Hyp. 36Hyp. 37Hyp. 38Hyp. 39
Person110
Great-Great-Great-Grandparent
8.39%
Great-Great-Great-Grandchild
8.39%
Half Great-Great-Niece / Nephew
8.39%
1C2R
8.39%
1C3R
41.26%
1C4R
29.36%
1C5R
16.68%
Half 1C1R
8.39%
Half 1C2R
41.26%
Half 1C3R
29.36%
Half 1C4R
16.68%
Half 1C5R
4.30%
2C
8.39%
2C1R
41.26%
2C2R
29.36%
2C3R
16.68%
2C4R
4.30%
Half 1C1R
8.39%
Half 2C
41.26%
Half 2C1R
29.36%
Half 2C2R
16.68%
Half 2C3R
4.30%
1C2R
8.39%
2C1R
41.26%
3C
29.36%
3C1R
16.68%
3C2R
4.30%
Half Great-Great-Aunt / Uncle
8.39%
Half 1C2R
41.26%
Half 2C1R
29.36%
Half 3C
16.68%
Half 3C1R
4.30%
1C3R
41.26%
2C2R
29.36%
3C1R
16.68%
4C
4.30%
Half 1C3R
29.36%
Half 2C2R
16.68%
Half 3C1R
4.30%
Combined odds ratio1.951.951.951.959.596.823.881.959.596.823.881.001.959.596.823.881.001.959.596.823.881.001.959.596.823.881.001.959.596.823.881.009.596.823.881.006.823.881.00

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About this tool

This tool has been built to help solve DNA puzzles (including unknown parentage cases) by undertaking the calculations described by Leah Larkin in her series Science the heck out of your DNA...

© DNA Painter 2018-2022

Caveats

Due to the lack of statistical data available, this tool has limited applications to the following scenarios:

  • Double-cousin relationships
  • 3/4 sibling relationships
  • Matches with endogamous ancestry

Credits

WATO uses probabilities simulated by AncestryDNA and originally described in their White Paper.

The underlying calculations that convert the compounded probabilities into the odds ratio used for the score were developed by Dr. Andrew Millard.

Valuable advice on the user interface and functionality was provided by Mike Mulligan. Many thanks also to the early beta testers from the GG&T group on Facebook.

The static tree layout was adapted from an example by Peiwen Lu.