What Are the Odds? Read the FAQ
Tips
WATO lets you use the amounts of DNA you share with multiple matches to help figure out where you might fit into their tree
Before you start you'll need:
- A research question (e.g. 'Who was my father?')
- Shared cM amounts for a group of matches from your match list
- Knowledge of how these matches are related to each other
How to use:
- Enter your target name and year of birth. This is either you or the name or another person who you're trying to fit into the tree using their matches.
- Build a simple tree by hovering on a node and clicking add child, or alternatively import a GEDCOM
- Enter the amounts of DNA the target shares with people in the tree by hovering over each match and clicking Enter match cM
- To find out whether a position in the tree is feasible based on the amounts of shared DNA, hover over any node and click Add hypothesis. Or click Suggest Hypotheses to have WATO do this for you.
- The site will generate an odds ratio for each hypothesis. If the odds are above zero, the hypothesis is possible, and the higher a score is, the more likely it is. This does not mean a score has to be high in order for a hypothesis to be correct.
While the scores cannot give you a definitive answer, they can guide you in the right direction.
Read the FAQ
Or close this window and build a tree manually
Load GEDCOM
Upload a GEDCOM (family tree) file here. Please note: this will *replace* anything you may have already entered for this WATO tree.
Loading GEDCOM data. If you have a large file, this may take a little while
If you have any issues importing your family tree, I would be very grateful if you could email a copy to info@dnapainter.com for testing. Many thanks!
Sorry - there was a problem with your file. Either it wasn't a file the site can read, or there weren't any people in it.
Your file should be a GEDCOM file with the file extension '.ged' or '.gedcom'. Please check the file and try again, or if you think your file is fine, please feel free to email it to info@dnapainter.com
Import
Privacy
Target name: Enter the name of the person you're trying to place in the tree Birth year: YYYY
My research question is: Enter the question you are trying to answer here
The file you loaded was imported successfully
XTree deleted
XThis is an example tree. Create a new tree by clicking here
You are viewing this tree in read-only mode. If you would like to make edits, please click Save and make a copy in your DNA Painter account first.
You are investigating a match of 110cM
The tree below shows 39 hypotheses, identified by a green border. These represent different ways you and the match could connect.
- Hypotheses are mathematically possible but may not be genealogically likely.
- To narrow down the possibilities, type your birth year above and estimate a birth year for the match by hovering over 'Person' and clicking 'Edit details'
- If you have pedigree collapse or endogamy in your family, these hypotheses may not be accurate.
- Shared cM project view for 110 cM
- More information on this feature
You have one or more hypotheses that are possible
Click on any score to show match relationships
View score calculation View ranking of hypothesesHover over a person for options. Scroll to the right to see children.
Suggesting Hypotheses
Ranking of Hypotheses
Here are the calculated probabilities, with the most likely hypothesis first.
A higher score means a higher likelihood that this hypothesis is correct. Read the FAQ for more about scores
Hypothesis 5Target is the child of Hypothesis 4 and grandchild of Unknown childThis hypothesis is possible and about as likely as the next hypothesis |
Hypothesis 9Target is the child of Hypothesis 8 and grandchild of Unknown childThis hypothesis is possible and about as likely as the next hypothesis |
Hypothesis 14Target is the child of Hypothesis 13 and grandchild of Unknown childThis hypothesis is possible and about as likely as the next hypothesis |
Hypothesis 19Target is the child of Hypothesis 18 and grandchild of Unknown half-sibThis hypothesis is possible and about as likely as the next hypothesis |
Hypothesis 24Target is the child of Hypothesis 23 and grandchild of Unknown siblingThis hypothesis is possible and about as likely as the next hypothesis |
Hypothesis 29Target is the child of Hypothesis 28 and grandchild of UnknownThis hypothesis is possible and about as likely as the next hypothesis |
Hypothesis 33Target is the child of Unknown sibling and grandchild of Hypothesis 1This hypothesis is possible and about as likely as the next hypothesis |
Hypothesis 6Target is the child of Hypothesis 5 and grandchild of Hypothesis 4This hypothesis is possible and about as likely as the next hypothesis |
Hypothesis 10Target is the child of Hypothesis 9 and grandchild of Hypothesis 8This hypothesis is possible and about as likely as the next hypothesis |
Hypothesis 15Target is the child of Hypothesis 14 and grandchild of Hypothesis 13This hypothesis is possible and about as likely as the next hypothesis |
Hypothesis 20Target is the child of Hypothesis 19 and grandchild of Hypothesis 18This hypothesis is possible and about as likely as the next hypothesis |
Hypothesis 25Target is the child of Hypothesis 24 and grandchild of Hypothesis 23This hypothesis is possible and about as likely as the next hypothesis |
Hypothesis 30Target is the child of Hypothesis 29 and grandchild of Hypothesis 28This hypothesis is possible and about as likely as the next hypothesis |
Hypothesis 34Target is the child of Hypothesis 33 and grandchild of Unknown siblingThis hypothesis is possible and about as likely as the next hypothesis |
Hypothesis 37Target is the child of Unknown half-sib and grandchild of Hypothesis 1About 2 times more likely than the next hypothesisThis also applies to any identically scoring hypotheses above |
Hypothesis 7Target is the child of Hypothesis 6 and grandchild of Hypothesis 5This hypothesis is possible and about as likely as the next hypothesis |
Hypothesis 11Target is the child of Hypothesis 10 and grandchild of Hypothesis 9This hypothesis is possible and about as likely as the next hypothesis |
Hypothesis 16Target is the child of Hypothesis 15 and grandchild of Hypothesis 14This hypothesis is possible and about as likely as the next hypothesis |
Hypothesis 21Target is the child of Hypothesis 20 and grandchild of Hypothesis 19This hypothesis is possible and about as likely as the next hypothesis |
Hypothesis 26Target is the child of Hypothesis 25 and grandchild of Hypothesis 24This hypothesis is possible and about as likely as the next hypothesis |
Hypothesis 31Target is the child of Hypothesis 30 and grandchild of Hypothesis 29This hypothesis is possible and about as likely as the next hypothesis |
Hypothesis 35Target is the child of Hypothesis 34 and grandchild of Hypothesis 33This hypothesis is possible and about as likely as the next hypothesis |
Hypothesis 38Target is the child of Hypothesis 37 and grandchild of Unknown half-sibAbout 2 times more likely than the next hypothesisThis also applies to any identically scoring hypotheses above |
Hypothesis 1Target is the child of Unknown and grandchild of Most recent common ancestor or coupleThis hypothesis is possible and about as likely as the next hypothesis This is statistically possible, but it's not significantly more likely than other hypothesis. |
Hypothesis 2Target is the child of Unknown child and grandchild of Unknown childThis hypothesis is possible and about as likely as the next hypothesis This is statistically possible, but it's not significantly more likely than other hypothesis. |
Hypothesis 3Target is the child of Unknown child and grandchild of Unknown childThis hypothesis is possible and about as likely as the next hypothesis This is statistically possible, but it's not significantly more likely than other hypothesis. |
Hypothesis 4Target is the child of Unknown child and grandchild of Unknown childThis hypothesis is possible and about as likely as the next hypothesis This is statistically possible, but it's not significantly more likely than other hypothesis. |
Hypothesis 8Target is the child of Unknown child and grandchild of Unknown half-sibThis hypothesis is possible and about as likely as the next hypothesis This is statistically possible, but it's not significantly more likely than other hypothesis. |
Hypothesis 13Target is the child of Unknown child and grandchild of Unknown siblingThis hypothesis is possible and about as likely as the next hypothesis This is statistically possible, but it's not significantly more likely than other hypothesis. |
Hypothesis 18Target is the child of Unknown half-sib and grandchild of UnknownThis hypothesis is possible and about as likely as the next hypothesis This is statistically possible, but it's not significantly more likely than other hypothesis. |
Hypothesis 23Target is the child of Unknown sibling and grandchild of UnknownThis hypothesis is possible and about as likely as the next hypothesis This is statistically possible, but it's not significantly more likely than other hypothesis. |
Hypothesis 28Target is the child of Unknown and grandchild of Hypothesis 1About 2 times more likely than the next hypothesisThis also applies to any identically scoring hypotheses above This is statistically possible, but it's not significantly more likely than other hypothesis. |
Hypothesis 12Target is the child of Hypothesis 11 and grandchild of Hypothesis 10This hypothesis is possible and about as likely as the next hypothesis This is statistically possible, but it's not significantly more likely than other hypothesis. |
Hypothesis 17Target is the child of Hypothesis 16 and grandchild of Hypothesis 15This hypothesis is possible and about as likely as the next hypothesis This is statistically possible, but it's not significantly more likely than other hypothesis. |
Hypothesis 22Target is the child of Hypothesis 21 and grandchild of Hypothesis 20This hypothesis is possible and about as likely as the next hypothesis This is statistically possible, but it's not significantly more likely than other hypothesis. |
Hypothesis 27Target is the child of Hypothesis 26 and grandchild of Hypothesis 25This hypothesis is possible and about as likely as the next hypothesis This is statistically possible, but it's not significantly more likely than other hypothesis. |
Hypothesis 32Target is the child of Hypothesis 31 and grandchild of Hypothesis 30This hypothesis is possible and about as likely as the next hypothesis This is statistically possible, but it's not significantly more likely than other hypothesis. |
Hypothesis 36Target is the child of Hypothesis 35 and grandchild of Hypothesis 34This hypothesis is possible and about as likely as the next hypothesis This is statistically possible, but it's not significantly more likely than other hypothesis. |
Hypothesis 39Target is the child of Hypothesis 38 and grandchild of Hypothesis 37This hypothesis is possible This is statistically possible, but it's not significantly more likely than other hypothesis. |
Score calculation
This table shows the following for each match:
- Amount of shared DNA in cMs
- The genealogical relationship with each hypothesis based on its position in the tree (for example 3rd cousin)
- The probability that the amount of cM shared corresponds to this relationship
These individual probabilities are then used to calculate the combined odds ratio used for the score
If a probability appears in red as '0.00%', this means this relationship is not statistically possible given the shared cM amount you've entered.
The odds ratios are made by comparing all hypotheses that are considered possible and then determining the relative likelhood of each. For more information please see the FAQ.View ranking of hypotheses Back to top
| Hyp. 1 | Hyp. 2 | Hyp. 3 | Hyp. 4 | Hyp. 5 | Hyp. 6 | Hyp. 7 | Hyp. 8 | Hyp. 9 | Hyp. 10 | Hyp. 11 | Hyp. 12 | Hyp. 13 | Hyp. 14 | Hyp. 15 | Hyp. 16 | Hyp. 17 | Hyp. 18 | Hyp. 19 | Hyp. 20 | Hyp. 21 | Hyp. 22 | Hyp. 23 | Hyp. 24 | Hyp. 25 | Hyp. 26 | Hyp. 27 | Hyp. 28 | Hyp. 29 | Hyp. 30 | Hyp. 31 | Hyp. 32 | Hyp. 33 | Hyp. 34 | Hyp. 35 | Hyp. 36 | Hyp. 37 | Hyp. 38 | Hyp. 39 | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Great-Great-Great-Grandparent 8.39% | Great-Great-Great-Grandchild 8.39% | Half Great-Great-Niece / Nephew 8.39% | 1C2R 8.39% | 1C3R 41.26% | 1C4R 29.36% | 1C5R 16.68% | Half 1C1R 8.39% | Half 1C2R 41.26% | Half 1C3R 29.36% | Half 1C4R 16.68% | Half 1C5R 4.30% | 2C 8.39% | 2C1R 41.26% | 2C2R 29.36% | 2C3R 16.68% | 2C4R 4.30% | Half 1C1R 8.39% | Half 2C 41.26% | Half 2C1R 29.36% | Half 2C2R 16.68% | Half 2C3R 4.30% | 1C2R 8.39% | 2C1R 41.26% | 3C 29.36% | 3C1R 16.68% | 3C2R 4.30% | Half Great-Great-Aunt / Uncle 8.39% | Half 1C2R 41.26% | Half 2C1R 29.36% | Half 3C 16.68% | Half 3C1R 4.30% | 1C3R 41.26% | 2C2R 29.36% | 3C1R 16.68% | 4C 4.30% | Half 1C3R 29.36% | Half 2C2R 16.68% | Half 3C1R 4.30% | ||
Combined odds ratio | 1.95 | 1.95 | 1.95 | 1.95 | 9.59 | 6.82 | 3.88 | 1.95 | 9.59 | 6.82 | 3.88 | 1.00 | 1.95 | 9.59 | 6.82 | 3.88 | 1.00 | 1.95 | 9.59 | 6.82 | 3.88 | 1.00 | 1.95 | 9.59 | 6.82 | 3.88 | 1.00 | 1.95 | 9.59 | 6.82 | 3.88 | 1.00 | 9.59 | 6.82 | 3.88 | 1.00 | 6.82 | 3.88 | 1.00 |
About this tool
This tool has been built to help solve DNA puzzles (including unknown parentage cases) by undertaking the calculations described by Leah Larkin in her series Science the heck out of your DNA...
© DNA Painter 2018-2022
Caveats
Due to the lack of statistical data available, this tool has limited applications to the following scenarios:
- Double-cousin relationships
- 3/4 sibling relationships
- Matches with endogamous ancestry
Credits
WATO uses probabilities simulated by AncestryDNA and originally described in their White Paper.
The underlying calculations that convert the compounded probabilities into the odds ratio used for the score were developed by Dr. Andrew Millard.
Valuable advice on the user interface and functionality was provided by Mike Mulligan. Many thanks also to the early beta testers from the GG&T group on Facebook.
The static tree layout was adapted from an example by Peiwen Lu.
DNA Kit links
These links provide a small commission to thednageek if you purchase a product after being referred through them; the cost of the product is the same for you. These companies include 23andMe, AncestryDNA, Living DNA, and MyHeritage.