Generating...
Expanding...
Closing chromosomes...
Loading...
Loading group...

What Are the Odds? v2 beta Read about v2switch to original probabilities

Target name: John Birth year: YYYY

My research question is: Enter the question you are trying to answer here

The file you loaded was imported successfully

X

Tree deleted

X

This is an example tree. Create a new tree by clicking here

You are viewing this tree in read-only mode. If you would like to make edits, please click Save and make a copy in your DNA Painter account first.

New
X

You are currently in read only mode. If you make edits to this tree, they will not be saved. If you'd like to save it to your DNA Painter account, please sign in or register (free). You'll then see the option to save a copy of this tree.


Experimental: you can save an image of this tree. The results may vary according to your browser. For the best results, try to maximize the size of the window before clicking this button. This feature works best in the Chrome, Firefox and Safari browsers.


You can also download the data for this tree locally and load it back into the tool later (or send it to someone else so they can load it in).

To do this, click the button below.

You have hypotheses that are not mathematically feasible

Click on any score to show match relationships

View score calculation View ranking of hypotheses

Hover over a person for options. Scroll to the right to see children.

Suggesting Hypotheses



Copied:

Ranking of Hypotheses

After you've added matches and hypotheses to a tree, hypotheses will appear here.

View score calculation Back to top
Back to top

Score calculation

This table shows the following for each match:

  • Amount of shared DNA in cMs
  • The genealogical relationship with each hypothesis based on its position in the tree (for example 3rd cousin)
  • The probability that the amount of cM shared corresponds to this relationship

These individual probabilities are then used to calculate the combined odds ratio used for the score

If a probability appears in red as '0.00%', this means this relationship is not statistically possible given the shared cM amount you've entered.

The odds ratios are made by comparing all hypotheses that are considered possible and then determining the relative likelhood of each. For more information please see the FAQ.

Back to top

View ranking of hypotheses Back to top

Back to top

About this tool

This tool has been built to help solve DNA puzzles (including unknown parentage cases) by undertaking the calculations described by Leah Larkin in her series Science the heck out of your DNA...

© DNA Painter 2018-2022

Caveats

Due to the lack of statistical data available, this tool has limited applications to the following scenarios:

  • Double-cousin relationships
  • 3/4 sibling relationships
  • Matches with endogamous ancestry

Credits

WATO uses probabilities simulated by AncestryDNA and originally described in their White Paper.

The underlying calculations that convert the compounded probabilities into the odds ratio used for the score were developed by Dr. Andrew Millard.

Valuable advice on the user interface and functionality was provided by Mike Mulligan. Many thanks also to the early beta testers from the GG&T group on Facebook.

The static tree layout was adapted from an example by Peiwen Lu.