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What Are the Odds? v2 beta Read about v2switch to original probabilities

Target name: Eugene's Birth year: YYYY

My research question is: Which child was Eugene's parent?

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You have hypotheses that are not mathematically feasible

Click on any score to show match relationships

View score calculation View ranking of hypotheses

Hover over a person for options. Scroll to the right to see children.

Suggesting Hypotheses



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Ranking of Hypotheses

After you've added matches and hypotheses to a tree, hypotheses will appear here.

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Score calculation

This table shows the following for each match:

  • Amount of shared DNA in cMs
  • The genealogical relationship with each hypothesis based on its position in the tree (for example 3rd cousin)
  • The probability that the amount of cM shared corresponds to this relationship

These individual probabilities are then used to calculate the combined odds ratio used for the score

If a probability appears in red as '0.00%', this means this relationship is not statistically possible given the shared cM amount you've entered.

The odds ratios are made by comparing all hypotheses that are considered possible and then determining the relative likelhood of each. For more information please see the FAQ.

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About this tool

This tool has been built to help solve DNA puzzles (including unknown parentage cases) by undertaking the calculations described by Leah Larkin in her series Science the heck out of your DNA...

© DNA Painter 2018-2022

Caveats

Due to the lack of statistical data available, this tool has limited applications to the following scenarios:

  • Double-cousin relationships
  • 3/4 sibling relationships
  • Matches with endogamous ancestry

Credits

WATO uses probabilities simulated by AncestryDNA and originally described in their White Paper.

The underlying calculations that convert the compounded probabilities into the odds ratio used for the score were developed by Dr. Andrew Millard.

Valuable advice on the user interface and functionality was provided by Mike Mulligan. Many thanks also to the early beta testers from the GG&T group on Facebook.

The static tree layout was adapted from an example by Peiwen Lu.