What Are the Odds? v2 beta Read about v2switch to original probabilities
Tips
WATO lets you use the amounts of DNA you share with multiple matches to help figure out where you might fit into their tree
Before you start you'll need:
- A research question (e.g. 'Who was my father?')
- Shared cM amounts for a group of matches from your match list
- Knowledge of how these matches are related to each other
How to use:
- Enter your target name and year of birth. This is either you or the name or another person who you're trying to fit into the tree using their matches.
- Build a simple tree by hovering on a node and clicking add child, or alternatively import a GEDCOM
- Enter the amounts of DNA the target shares with people in the tree by hovering over each match and clicking Enter match cM
- To find out whether a position in the tree is feasible based on the amounts of shared DNA, hover over any node and click Add hypothesis. Or click Suggest Hypotheses to have WATO do this for you.
- The site will generate an odds ratio for each hypothesis. If the odds are above zero, the hypothesis is possible, and the higher a score is, the more likely it is. This does not mean a score has to be high in order for a hypothesis to be correct.
While the scores cannot give you a definitive answer, they can guide you in the right direction.
Read the FAQ
Or close this window and build a tree manually
Load GEDCOM
Upload a GEDCOM (family tree) file here. Please note: this will *replace* anything you may have already entered for this WATO tree.
Loading GEDCOM data. If you have a large file, this may take a little while
If you have any issues importing your family tree, I would be very grateful if you could email a copy to info@dnapainter.com for testing. Many thanks!
Sorry - there was a problem with your file. Either it wasn't a file the site can read, or there weren't any people in it.
Your file should be a GEDCOM file with the file extension '.ged' or '.gedcom'. Please check the file and try again, or if you think your file is fine, please feel free to email it to info@dnapainter.com
Import
Privacy
Target name: Birth year: YYYY
My research question is: Which child was Eugene's parent?
The file you loaded was imported successfully
XTree deleted
XThis is an example tree. Create a new tree by clicking here
You are viewing this tree in read-only mode. If you would like to make edits, please click Save and make a copy in your DNA Painter account first.
You have one or more hypotheses that are not mathematically feasible
Click on any score to show match relationships
View score calculation View ranking of hypothesesHover over a person for options. Scroll to the right to see children.
Suggesting Hypotheses
Ranking of Hypotheses
Here are the calculated probabilities, with the most likely hypothesis first.
A higher score means a higher likelihood that this hypothesis is correct. Read the FAQ for more about scores
Hypothesis 1Target name is the child of Eugene's-son and grandchild of EugeneAbout 1,062 times more likely than the next hypothesis There could still be other more likely hypotheses. Have you overlooked any other possible places in the tree where Target name could fit? |
Hypothesis 4Target name is the child of Eugene's-son and grandchild of EugeneAbout 3 times more likely than the next hypothesis |
Hypothesis 6Target name is the child of Eugene's-son and grandchild of EugeneAbout 3 times more likely than the next hypothesis |
Hypothesis 2Target name is the child of Eugene's-son and grandchild of EugeneAbout 14 times more likely than the next hypothesis |
Hypothesis 3Target name is the child of Eugene's-son and grandchild of EugenePossible This is statistically possible, but it's not significantly more likely than other hypothesis. |
Hypothesis 5Target name is the child of Eugene's-son and grandchild of EugeneThis hypothesis is more than 1,000,000 times less likely than the top hypothesis and has therefore been ruled out. To see more detail, scroll down to "Score calculation" This hypothesis is more than 1,000,000 times less likely than the top hypothesis and has therefore been ruled out. To see more detail, scroll down to "Score calculation" |
Score calculation
This table shows the following for each match:
- Amount of shared DNA in cMs
- The genealogical relationship with each hypothesis based on its position in the tree (for example 3rd cousin)
- The probability that the amount of cM shared corresponds to this relationship
These individual probabilities are then used to calculate the combined odds ratio used for the score
If a probability appears in red as '0.00%', this means this relationship is not statistically possible given the shared cM amount you've entered.
The odds ratios are made by comparing all hypotheses that are considered possible and then determining the relative likelhood of each. For more information please see the FAQ.
You have entered 10 matches with an average of 67cM shared.
View ranking of hypotheses Back to top
| Hyp. 1 | Hyp. 2 | Hyp. 3 | Hyp. 4 | Hyp. 5 | Hyp. 6 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2C1R 49.16% | 3C1R 1.00% | 3C1R 1.00% | 3C1R 1.00% | 3C1R 1.00% | 3C1R 1.00% | ||
| 2C1R 49.95% | 3C1R 5.05% | 3C1R 5.05% | 3C1R 5.05% | 3C1R 5.05% | 3C1R 5.05% | ||
| 2C1R 48.48% | 3C1R 6.52% | 3C1R 6.52% | 3C1R 6.52% | 3C1R 6.52% | 3C1R 6.52% | ||
| 3C 30.12% | 2C 11.72% | 3C 30.12% | 3C 30.12% | 3C 30.12% | 3C 30.12% | ||
| 3C1R 11.92% | 3C1R 11.92% | 3C1R 11.92% | 2C1R 40.08% | 3C1R 11.92% | 3C1R 11.92% | ||
| 3C 37.00% | 3C 37.00% | 3C 37.00% | 3C 37.00% | 2C 4.00% | 3C 37.00% | ||
| 2C1R 22.80% | 3C1R 23.10% | 3C1R 23.10% | 3C1R 23.10% | 3C1R 23.10% | 3C1R 23.10% | ||
| 3C 26.48% | 3C 26.48% | 3C 26.48% | 3C 26.48% | 2C 0.78% | 3C 26.48% | ||
| 3C 18.16% | 3C 18.16% | 2C 0.50% | 3C 18.16% | 3C 18.16% | 3C 18.16% | ||
| 3C1R 19.00% | 3C1R 19.00% | 3C1R 19.00% | 3C1R 19.00% | 2C1R 1.00% | 3C1R 19.00% | ||
| Combined odds ratio | 129610.36 | 14.13 | 1.00 | 122.12 | 0.00 > 1,000,000 times less likely than Hypothesis 1 | 36.32 |
About this tool
This tool has been built to help solve DNA puzzles (including unknown parentage cases) by undertaking the calculations described by Leah Larkin in her series Science the heck out of your DNA...
© DNA Painter 2018-2022
Caveats
Due to the lack of statistical data available, this tool has limited applications to the following scenarios:
- Double-cousin relationships
- 3/4 sibling relationships
- Matches with endogamous ancestry
Credits
WATO uses probabilities simulated by AncestryDNA and originally described in their White Paper.
The underlying calculations that convert the compounded probabilities into the odds ratio used for the score were developed by Dr. Andrew Millard.
Valuable advice on the user interface and functionality was provided by Mike Mulligan. Many thanks also to the early beta testers from the GG&T group on Facebook.
The static tree layout was adapted from an example by Peiwen Lu.
DNA Kit links
These links provide a small commission to thednageek if you purchase a product after being referred through them; the cost of the product is the same for you. These companies include 23andMe, AncestryDNA, Living DNA, and MyHeritage.