What Are the Odds? plus BETA User Guide

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Top
Tree
Notes
Hyps
Scores

How it works

WATO plus lets you use the amounts of DNA you share with multiple matches to help figure out where you might fit into their tree

Before you start you'll need:

Shared cM amounts for a group of matches from your match list
Knowledge of how these matches are related to each other
A family history mystery
- e.g. 'Who was the father of John Smith?'
- ... or 'How do I connect'
  - In this case, you'll need to use shared matches to build up an idea of which known ancestor might connect you to this tree

How to use

Specify the name and year of birth of the person whose parent you are hoping to identify, and note if you're looking for the mother, father, or just any parent.
- Specify whose matches you are using (e.g. the person already mentioned, or their child, grandchild or great-grandchild)
- Add additional optional information (e.g. the birth year of the other biological parent) if you have it, and click SAVE
Build a simple tree by hovering on a node and clicking add child, or alternatively import a GEDCOM
Enter the amounts of DNA the tester shares with people in the tree by hovering over each match and clicking Enter match cM
You can now test out different positions in the tree. Wherever you think someone could be the parent you're looking for, hover over any node and click Add hypothesis. Or click Suggest Hypotheses to have WATO do this for you.
The site will generate a relative probability for each hypothesis. This is the percentage likelhood compared to other hypotheses in the tree for each. If the odds are above zero, the hypothesis is possible, and the higher a score is, the more likely it is. If you haven't considered every possible hypothesis, a high percentage probability is not meaningful.
If you have specified that you are looking for a mother or father, you can check the box to apply the age to the hypotheses. You can also optionally add the birth year of the other parent if you know it and check the box 'Also apply other parent age' in order to further refine the scores.

While the scores cannot give you a definitive answer, they can guide you in the right direction.

User guide

Read the FAQ
Or close this window and build a tree manually

Duplicate this tree

If you click this button, you will be taken to a new copy of this tree.

Duplicate WATO tree

Load GEDCOM

Upload a GEDCOM (family tree) file here. Please note: this will *replace* anything you may have already entered for this WATO tree. Maximum file size: 60MB.

If you're new to WATO please read Getting Started in the user guide first.

Loading GEDCOM data. If you have a large file, this may take a little while

If you have any issues importing your family tree, I would be very grateful if you could email a copy to info@dnapainter.com for testing. Please mention WATO plus in your email. Many thanks!

Sorry - there was a problem with your file. Either it wasn't a file the site can read, or there weren't any people in it.

Your file should be a GEDCOM file with the file extension '.ged' or '.gedcom'.

Please check the file and try again. If it's definitely a GEDCOM, please try re-exporting it specifying the UTF-8 character encoding if possible.

If you still have trouble, please feel free to email your file to info@dnapainter.com

This file seems to be over 60MB. This is likely to be too big for the browser to process.

If you have a fast computer and your file isn't very much bigger than 60MB, you can try and load it anyway by clicking here.

Otherwise, please click Back and use your family tree software to extract your direct line or otherwise reduce the size of this file and try again with the smaller file.

If you have trouble please email info@dnapainter.com. Thanks!

This appears to be a zip file. Please click Back and unzip the file on your computer before uploading. You may have to re-add the .zip file extension in order to do this. If you have trouble please email info@dnapainter.com. Thanks!

Please type a name in and click on someone first

You now need to import the descendants of the person or couple who are the common ancestors of the DNA matches you are using.

Type a name here and click on a result to select. Only people with descendants will appear.

Import

All descendants Just those who could have inherited X-DNA from Just those who could have inherited X-DNA from Just Male/Y-DNA line descendants of Just mtDNA line descendants of

Names

Do not look for cM values in names Automatically extract shared cM values from names (for example: John Smith 32cM)

Privacy

Replace the names of living people with their initials Import the names and details of living people as is

Focusing on

Each match now has a badge showing:

Their genealogical connection to the tester based on this hypothesis
The probability of this relationship based on the amount of DNA they share with the tester

View full scores table

WATO plus lets you use DNA matches to help figure out where you might fit into their tree

Read help on getting started

Please check the fields with a red outline below and fill them in before proceeding

I would like to identify the biological
of who was born in the year I am using the DNA Matches of whose name is

The other parent was born in the year The matches are from Title for this tree

If you want to use the other parent birth year in calculations, be sure to specify above that you are trying to identify a biological mother or father rather than just parent

I am trying to identify the biological father of Charles Edward Haggard, born in the year 1937, using the DNA matches of Charles Edward Haggard’s grandchild Caitlin Anne Haggard. The biological mother was born in 1900.

Next step: make a tree connecting together ’s DNA matches.

Remember: this tree should not include ’s known family. It should be a tree connecting DNA matches. You can then use WATO plus to help you figure out how connects.

You can also build the tree manually below by hovering and clicking 'add child'. If you're doing this, please click 'edit details' for each person and add as many birth/death years as possible.

You have hypotheses that are not mathematically feasible

Click on any score to show match relationships

New Apply parent’s age to the probabilities? To activate this option, click edit and update "Parent" to either “Father” or “Mother” Also apply other parent’s age to the probabilities? To activate this option, click edit and add a valid birth year for the other parent under optional info

5 hypothesis suggested View ranking of hypotheses

You currently have 'Stop WATO from adding unknown people to the tree' checked, so WATO will not add any new nodes to the tree when suggesting hypotheses

If this is too many, you could try clicking remove suggestions, checking the option Stop WATO from adding unknown people to the tree in Actions and Settings, and then clicking Regenerate Hypotheses
To remove a hypothesis, hover over it and click 'remove hypothesis'
Or you can click 'Remove suggested hypotheses' to remove all suggestions

Entering as many birth and death years as possible will improve suggestions.

To do this, hover on a node and click Edit details

* One or more suggested hypotheses were extremely unlikely. For clarity, those that are more than 1,000,000 times less likely than the highest scoring probability have been assigned a probability of zero.

* WATO had to stop suggesting early, either because the tree is very large, or because the cM amounts entered suggested a wide variety of possibilities.

To fix this, consider checking Stop WATO adding unknown people to the tree in order to reduce the number of possibilities.

GEDCOM imported

You can now hover over any DNA matches in this tree and click Enter Match cM in order to enter the amount of shared DNA.

WATO needs more information! Please make sure you have:

Entered at least one match of 40cM or over
Made sure at least one match has a birth year entered
Entered all requested information about the tester and parent sought

Once you've done this, WATO will be able to suggest hypotheses.

WATO was not able to find any more feasible hypotheses to suggest

Important: WATO had to stop suggesting early, either because the tree is very large, or because the cM amounts entered suggested a wide variety of possibilities. To fix this, try removing some smaller matches if applicable.

You currently have Stop WATO adding unknown people to the tree unchecked.
If you check this, WATO will restrict its suggestions to people already in the tree, but will consider all of them.

You currently have 'Stop WATO adding unknown people to the tree' checked. If you uncheck this, WATO can attempt to find feasible hypotheses by creating new people.
You do not currently have 'Allow WATO to add siblings of the root person' checked. If you check this, WATO can attempt to find feasible hypotheses by adding ancestors of the root person and their descendants.
You can adjust the Flex option under Actions and Settings and then click 'Regenerate hypotheses.' This allows you to lower the cM amounts used in calculations, with the result that WATO will will accept relationships with more DNA shared than normally expected as feasible.

You currently have allow WATO to add siblings of the root person checked.
You could try unchecking this.

You could also check:

The Max and Min age settings under Actions and Settings
The cM amounts you have entered into the tree are correct
The birth years in the tree are correct

The file you loaded was imported successfully

Tree deleted

Not saved

Sorry, but your tree did not save to the server!

Your session may have timed out, or you might have had a temporary connection issue.
If this recurs after you add another match or hypothesis, please refresh this page and log in again if necessary.
If the problem recurs, please make a backup and contact info@dnapainter.com

This is an example tree. Create a new tree by clicking here

You are viewing this tree in read-only mode. If you would like to make edits, please click Save and make a copy in your DNA Painter account first.

Welcome

For specific instructions on how to get started, click on a use case below.

I have an unknown parent, grandparent, great-grandparent etc.
I've found some matches who seem relevant based on shared matches, and I'm able to link them together in a family tree

You can use WATO plus to try and figure out how you might connect to the tree you've made for these matches.

Where it says Enter a name, enter the name of the person whose parent you want to identify
- So if you want to find your own unknown parent, enter your name
- Or if you have an unknown grandparent, enter your parent's name, etc
Specify whether you're looking to identify the Father, Mother, or just any parent
In the born in the year field, enter the birth year of the person whose parent you are trying to identify
Specify whose DNA matches you will be using and how this person is related to the person with the unknown parent
Click save; you'll then see options to import or build the family tree that you have made linking the DNA matches
Each hypothesis you add will represent someone who you think could have been the parent/grandparent etc
For example: if your name is Jane and you have an unknown maternal grandfather because your mother Deirdre did not know who her father was, you would:
- Specify that you would like to identify the father of Deirdre born [Deirdre's birth year]
- Indicate that you will be using the DNA matches of Jane, who is Deirdre's child
- You'd then click Save and add a tree connecting some of Jane's maternal DNA matches who seem relevant

I have a mystery match
This mystery match shares DNA with more than one person in my tree

You can use WATO plus to explore how this match might connect to your existing family tree. This will work best if the family members who share DNA with the match are no more closely related to each other than first cousins. Use shared matches to narrow down which branch of your tree the match is likely to connect on.

Where it says Enter a name, enter the name of the match
If you can see that the match has an unknown parent, specify that you're seeking the biological Father or Mother; otherwise leave the dropdown as Parent
In the born in the year field, enter an estimated or guessed birth year for the match. This could be based on an age range provided by the testing company, or by a photo if they have one.
Leave the using the DNA matches of dropdown in its default position: This person
Click save. You'll then see options to import the appropriate branch of your family tree
Each hypothesis you add will represent someone who you think could have been the parent of your match

I have a cluster of mystery matches that all descend from one person or couple
I’d like to investigate the connection

There are a few ways you could approach this. My suggestion would be:

With the help of shared matches, try to narrow down which branch of your family tree is the one via which you connect to these matches
Select an ancestor on this line where one or both parents are unknown
Select Father, Mother or Parent as appropriate
Where it says Enter a name, enter the name of this ancestor
In the born in the year field, enter the birth year of your ancestor
For using the DNA matches of select the relationship that you (or the DNA tester whose matches you're using) has to this ancestor
In the whose name is field, enter the name of the tester
Click save; you will then see options to import the appropriate branch of your family tree
Each hypothesis you add will represent someone who you think could have been the parent of your ancestor

I have a cluster of mystery matches that seem to be connected
I don’t know how we are related or how they are related to each other but would like to find out

You are not quite ready to use this tool. In order for it to work, you need a known tree.

Once you have been able to research these matches and figure out how at least two of them are connected to each other, you'll be able to build a tree and come back and use WATO plus

Drag and drop to move and re-order

Move nodes by dragging them to different positions in the tree.
To leave the original copy in place when moving a node, hold down the ALT key (or if you're on a Mac, the option/⌥ key) before dragging.
Uncheck the box or press the escape key to turn this off and re-enable editing.
Download or duplicate via the options and settings panel first if you need a backup since there is no undo function.

Actions

You are currently in read only mode. If you make edits to this tree, they will not be saved. If you'd like to save it to your DNA Painter account, please sign in or register. You'll then see the option to save a copy of this tree.

Settings

Drag and drop to move and re-order

Colour-code male and female Stop WATO from adding unknown people to the tree Allow WATO to add siblings of the root person

Probabilities

2020 2016 read about sources

Max and min Ages

Minimum age to be a parent Maximum age for a mother Maximum age for a father These ages are used when WATO suggests hypotheses and adds unknown people to the tree

Flex

This experimental feature will permit relationships with more DNA shared than normally expected. You might find this useful if you have a tree with extensive endogamy or pedigree collapse and want WATO to suggest hypotheses more broadly. To try it, move the slider. To see details of the calculations, click 'Scores' on the right.

Tree orientation

Horizontal Vertical

Background colour of saved images

White Transparent

“Save an image” works best in the Chrome, Firefox and Safari browsers

Hover over a person for options. Scroll to the right to see children.

Suggesting Hypotheses

1) John Moscoe- Elvira Lancaster. 2) Richard Butler Moscoe- Mary Virginia Conner, Samuel Martin Moscoe- Amanda Morehead and Mary Belle Everling, Benjamin F Moscoe- Amanda Ursula Webster and Susan Mary Craig, Sarah Moscoe- Henry William Wise and James M Fulton, William H Moscoe- Mary Frances Taylor, George W Moscoe- Martha J Young.

What Are the Odds? plus BETA User Guide

Local backup detected

WATO plus lets you use DNA matches to help figure out where you might fit into their tree

GEDCOM imported

Welcome

Actions

Settings

Probabilities

Max and min Ages

Flex

Tree orientation

Background colour of saved images

Ranking of Hypotheses

Score calculation

About this tool

Sources for Probabilities

Caveats

Credits

What Are the Odds? plus BETA User Guide

Local backup detected

How it works

Before you start you'll need:

How to use

Duplicate this tree

Load GEDCOM

Import

Names

Privacy

WATO plus lets you use DNA matches to help figure out where you might fit into their tree read more

GEDCOM imported

Welcome

Actions

Settings

Probabilities

Max and min Ages Edit

Flex

Tree orientation

Background colour of saved images

Ranking of Hypotheses

Score calculation

About this tool

Sources for Probabilities

Caveats

Credits

WATO plus lets you use DNA matches to help figure out where you might fit into their tree

Max and min Ages