What Are the Odds? v2 beta Read about v2 switch to original probabilities

Tips

WATO lets you use the amounts of DNA you share with multiple matches to help figure out where you might fit into their tree

Before you start you'll need:

A research question (e.g. 'Who was my father?')
Shared cM amounts for a group of matches from your match list
Knowledge of how these matches are related to each other

How to use:

Enter your target name and year of birth. This is either you or the name or another person who you're trying to fit into the tree using their matches.
Build a simple tree by hovering on a node and clicking add child, or alternatively import a GEDCOM
Enter the amounts of DNA the target shares with people in the tree by hovering over each match and clicking Enter match cM
To find out whether a position in the tree is feasible based on the amounts of shared DNA, hover over any node and click Add hypothesis. Or click Suggest Hypotheses to have WATO do this for you.
The site will generate an odds ratio for each hypothesis. If the odds are above zero, the hypothesis is possible, and the higher a score is, the more likely it is. This does not mean a score has to be high in order for a hypothesis to be correct.

While the scores cannot give you a definitive answer, they can guide you in the right direction.

Watch a webinar

Read the FAQ
Or close this window and build a tree manually

Load GEDCOM

Upload a GEDCOM (family tree) file here. Please note: this will *replace* anything you may have already entered for this WATO tree.

Loading GEDCOM data. If you have a large file, this may take a little while

If you have any issues importing your family tree, I would be very grateful if you could email a copy to info@dnapainter.com for testing. Many thanks!

Sorry - there was a problem with your file. Either it wasn't a file the site can read, or there weren't any people in it.

Your file should be a GEDCOM file with the file extension '.ged' or '.gedcom'. Please check the file and try again, or if you think your file is fine, please feel free to email it to info@dnapainter.com

Type a name here and click on a result to select someone whose descendants you'd like to import

Import

All descendants

Privacy

Replace the names of living people with their initials Import the names and details of living people as is.

Target name: Larry Birth year: YYYY

My research question is: Enter the question you are trying to answer here

The file you loaded was imported successfully

Tree deleted

This is an example tree. Create a new tree by clicking here

You are viewing this tree in read-only mode. If you would like to make edits, please click Save and make a copy in your DNA Painter account first.

New

You have one or more hypotheses that are not mathematically feasible

Click on any score to show match relationships

View score calculation View ranking of hypotheses

Hover over a person for options. Scroll to the right to see children.

Suggesting Hypotheses

Gaetano1783

Gaetano1834

Rose1883

Thomas

Robert 334cM

Beverly

female

Jacquelyn 146cM

child

Score = 10 Hypothesis 1

Score = 0 Hypothesis 2

child

Score = 0 Hypothesis 3

Score = 0 Hypothesis 4

Antonina1886

Joseph1923

Score = 1 Hypothesis 5

John1925

Score = 1 Hypothesis 6

child

Score = 29,598 Hypothesis 7

Score = 1 Hypothesis 8

child

Score = 2,971 Hypothesis 9

Score = 0 Hypothesis 10

Score = 0 Hypothesis 11

Francesco1826

Gaetano1856

Salvatore1898

Rose1928

Michael1952 156cM

male

Samuel 80cM

male

Angela 67cM

male

Michelle 102cM

Score = 0 Hypothesis 12

Score = 0 Hypothesis 13

Score = 0 Hypothesis 14

child

Score = 5,745 Hypothesis 15

Score = 0 Hypothesis 16

Score = 0 Hypothesis 17

child

Score = 1,837 Hypothesis 18

Score = 0 Hypothesis 19

Score = 0 Hypothesis 20

child

Score = 610,951 Hypothesis 21

Score = 9 Hypothesis 22

Score = 0 Hypothesis 23

Score = 0 Hypothesis 24

child

Score = 9 Hypothesis 25

Score = 0 Hypothesis 26

Score = 0 Hypothesis 27

Score = 0 Hypothesis 28

Click to add notes

Ranking of Hypotheses

Here are the calculated probabilities, with the most likely hypothesis first.
A higher score means a higher likelihood that this hypothesis is correct. Read the FAQ for more about scores

View score calculation Back to top

Hypothesis 21Larry is the child of child and grandchild of Gaetano1783

Score = 610,951

About 21 times more likely than the next hypothesis
There could still be other more likely hypotheses. Have you overlooked any other possible places in the tree where Larry could fit?

Hypothesis 7Larry is the child of child and grandchild of Gaetano1834

Score = 29,598

About 5 times more likely than the next hypothesis

Hypothesis 15Larry is the child of child and grandchild of Francesco1826

Score = 5,745

About 2 times more likely than the next hypothesis

Hypothesis 9Larry is the child of child and grandchild of Gaetano1834

Score = 2,971

About 2 times more likely than the next hypothesis

Hypothesis 18Larry is the child of child and grandchild of Francesco1826

Score = 1,837

About 184 times more likely than the next hypothesis

Hypothesis 1Larry is the child of child and grandchild of Rose1883

Score = 10

This hypothesis is possible and about as likely as the next hypothesis

Hypothesis 22Larry is the child of Hypothesis 21 and grandchild of child

Score = 9

This hypothesis is possible and about as likely as the next hypothesis

Hypothesis 25Larry is the child of child and grandchild of Gaetano1783

Score = 9

About 9 times more likely than the next hypothesisThis also applies to any identically scoring hypotheses above

Hypothesis 5Larry is the child of Joseph1923 and grandchild of Antonina1886

Score = 1

This hypothesis is possible and about as likely as the next hypothesis
This is statistically possible, but it's not significantly more likely than other hypothesis.

Hypothesis 6Larry is the child of John1925 and grandchild of Antonina1886

Score = 1

This hypothesis is possible and about as likely as the next hypothesis
This is statistically possible, but it's not significantly more likely than other hypothesis.

Hypothesis 8Larry is the child of Hypothesis 7 and grandchild of child

Score = 1

Possible
This is statistically possible, but it's not significantly more likely than other hypothesis.

Hypothesis 3Larry is the child of child and grandchild of Rose1883

Score = 0

This hypothesis is more than 1,000,000 times less likely than the top hypothesis and has therefore been ruled out. To see more detail, scroll down to "Score calculation"
This hypothesis is more than 1,000,000 times less likely than the top hypothesis and has therefore been ruled out. To see more detail, scroll down to "Score calculation"